Tsunami or smooth sailing: Data sheds light on India’s economy

Global economic uncertainty has increased through 2025 and now into 2026. The West Asian conflict between Iran and the United States, the Strait of Hormuz closure, and supply disruptions have increased energy costs across the world. Strained supply chains have caused turmoil in global financial markets. Voices in sections of the Indian media and political opposition speculate that India is heading for serious economic trouble. Some in India see growth faltering, prices rising dangerously, and the economy being mismanaged.

The data, however, tells a completely different story. India's real GDP grew at 7.7% in 2025-26 which is faster than the year before and faster than every other large economy globally. Inflation stayed within the Reserve Bank of India's stated target. The fiscal deficit which had increased due to COVID-19 is on a downward path. Foreign exchange reserves in India remain among the highest in the world.