Asia's cauldron: The South China Sea and the end of a stable Pacific

On 12 July 2026, fourteen governments issued a joint statement marking 10 years since an arbitral tribunal at The Hague ruled on the maritime dispute between the Philippines and China. The Philippines, the United States, Japan, Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Germany, Italy, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovenia reaffirmed that the 2016 Award was final and legally binding. The European Union issued its own statement the same weekend. Beijing's reply was immediate and unchanged that the ruling was a piece of paper, and China neither accepted nor recognised it.
The questions the anniversary raises are practical, not ceremonial. What does the award actually say? Why does a state that ratified the treaty reject the tribunal created by the treaty? What has happened at sea since? And what does India have at stake in a waterway far from its coast?